Ford, Carter, and the Economic Malaise: Crash Course US History #42


Hi, I’m John Green, this is Crash Course
U.S. History and today we are going to talk about one of the most important periods in
American history, the mid-to-late 1970s. Stan why is there nothing on the chalkboard? We
can’t find a picture of Gerald Ford somewhere around here?
Don’t worry Crash Course fans we got one. Thanks for your support through Subbable.
It paid for this 90 cent Gerald Ford photograph. These really are the years where everything
changed in the United States and amidst all that turmoil something wonderful was born.
Mr. Green? Mr. Green? Strong with the force, this episode is.
No, me from the past, Yoda doesn’t show up until Empire Strikes Back which came out
in 1980. I’m referring of course to the fact that we were born! It’s the beginning
of the John Green era! From here on out, almost everything we discuss
will have happened in my lifetime. Or as most Crash Course viewers refer to it, “that
century before I was born”. But it wasn’t just the birth of me and the
death of Elvis, the late 1970s were truly a period of momentous change, and for most
Americans it sucked. Intro
So how Americans reacted to those no good very bad years really has shaped the world
in which we find ourselves. The big story of the 1970s is economics. Twenty-five
years of broad economic expansion and prosperity came to a grinding halt in the 1970s meaning
the our party was over. And what did we get instead? Inflation and extremely slow growth.
The worst hangover ever. Just kidding, the worst hangover was The Depression.
The 2nd worst hangover was the 2008 recession, and then the 3rd worst hangover was Hangover
Part III. It was the 4th worst hangover in American history.
Narrowly beating out America’s 5th worst hangover the Hangover Part II.
What happened to the American economy in the 1970s was the result both of long-term processes
and unexpected shocks. The long-term process was the gradual decline of manufacturing in
the U.S. in relation to competing manufacturing in the rest of the world.
Part of this was due to American policy; after World War II, you’ll remember that we promoted
the economic growth of Japan, Germany, South Korea and Taiwan, ignoring the tariffs that
they set up to protect nascent industries, and effectively subsidizing them by providing
for their defense. And not having to build nuclear arsenals of
their own really allowed them to invest in their domestic economies.
And then one day, a bunch of Toyotas and Mercedes showed up, and you could drive them up to
like 40 thousand miles before they would break down and we were like, “wait a second”.
In 1971, for the first time in the 20th century, America experienced an export trade deficit,
importing more goods than it exported, which is the same problem that my aunt has with
QVC. I mean, they hardly import anything from her.
One reason for this deficit was because the dollar was linked to gold, making it a strong
currency but also making American products more expensive abroad. So Nixon took the U.S.
off the gold standard, hoping to make American goods cheaper overseas and reduce imports,
but that didn’t really work. Because the U.S. was also competing against
cheaper labor costs, and cheaper raw materials, and more productive economies.
And in many cases this growing global competition put American firms that couldn’t compete
out of business. This was especially true in manufacturing.
In 1960, 38% of Americans worked in manufacturing. In 1980, it was 28%. Today, it’s nine. Not
9%, nine people. Stan wants me to tell you that was a joke.
It actually is 9%. Unionized workers were hit particularly hard.
In the 1940s and 1950s unions had won generous concessions from corporate employers including
paid vacation, and health benefits, and especially pensions, which employers would agree to as
a kind of deferred compensation so that they wouldn’t have to pay higher w ages to people
while they were working. And this worked great, until people started
to retire. So by 1970, competition led employers to either
eliminate high-paying manufacturing jobs, or else to increase automation, or to shift
workers to lower wage regions of the U.S. or even overseas.
The American South benefitted from this trend because its anti-union stance was attractive
to manufacturers. But then, non-union industries that were already in the South found that
they had no way to find new workers so the only way to survive was to move production
overseas. And also as industries moved production to
the Sunbelt that increased the political influence of the region, and because the South and Southwest
are generally conservative politically, the nation’s politics continued to move to the
right. Meanwhile the northern industrial cities,
particularly the Rust Belt of the Midwest, were becoming the empty urban playgrounds
that we know and love today. Detroit and Chicago had lost half of their
manufacturing jobs by 1980 and smaller cities fared even worse. As industry moved away,
they found their tax bases dried up, and they were unable to provide even basic services
to their citizens. I mean with the world of Wall Street fat cats
this is hard to imagine today, but in 1975 New York City faced bankruptcy.
In addition to these long term structural changes to the American economy and our demographics,
the 1970s saw two oil shocks that sent the economy into a tailspin.
In 1973, in response to Western support of Israel, Middle Eastern Arab states suspended
oil exports to the U.S which led to the price of oil quadrupling.
This resulted in long lines for gasoline, dramatically higher oil prices, and Americans
deciding to purchase smaller, more fuel efficient cars, which is to say Japanese cars.
Also, prices of everything else went up because oil is either used for the production of or
transportation of just about everything. I mean with 70’s inflation, this 90 cent
portrait of Gerald Ford would have cost at least $1.10.
The paint that covers the green parts of not-America, oil based.
The plastic that comprises the DVD’s of Crash Course World History, available now
at DFTBA.com, oil based. Those were a fantastic bargain and they would
have been way more expensive if the price of oil was higher.
And then, in 1979, a second oil shock hit the United States after the Iranian revolution.
Wait Stan, did we say 1979? We’ve got to put up a picture of Jimmy Carter.
Bam! Sorry, Gerald Ford there’s a peanut farmer in town.
So during the 1970s inflation soared to 10% a year and economic growth slowed to 2.4%,
resulting in what came to be known as stagflation. Unemployment rose, and a new economic statistic
was born: the misery index, the combination of unemployment and inflation. At the beginning
of the decade it was 10.8, by 1980 it had doubled.
If you’re looking for the roots of America’s contemporary economic inequality, the 1970s
are a good milestone, since according to our old friend Eric Foner, “beginning in 1973,
real wages essentially did not rise for twenty years.” [1]
Americans got to experience the joy of two years of Gerald Ford before poor Jimmy Carter
had a chance to fail at improving the economy. The only president never to have been elected
even to the vice presidency, Gerald Ford was so insignificant to American history that
we already replaced him on the chalkboard. One of Ford’s first acts was to pardon Nixon
making him immune from prosecution for obstruction of justice. That very unpopular decision probably
made it impossible for Ford to win in 1976. Coincidentally, WIN was the only memorable
domestic program that Ford proposed. It stood for Whip Inflation Now and it was basically
a plea for Americans to be better shoppers, spend less, and wear WIN buttons.
Thirty-five years later Charlie Sheen would turn winning into an incredibly successful
social media campaign, but sadly at the time there was no Twitter.
Inflation did drop, but unemployment went up, especially during the recession of 1974-75
where it topped 9%. Now, Ford would have liked to cut taxes and reduce government regulation,
but the Democratic Congress wouldn’t let him.
So that’s Ford, probably best known today as the first president to be satirized on
Saturday Night Live. Then, in 1976, we got a new president: Jimmy Carter.
Now Jimmy Carter is generally considered by historians to have been a failure as president.
Although, he is often seen as a really good ex-president. He tried to fight the inflation
part of stagflation, but to do it he acted in some rather un-New Deal Democrat ways.
He cut government spending, deregulated the trucking and airline industries, and he supported
the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates. Oh, it’s time for the mystery document?
The rules here are simple… I read the mystery document, I guess the author,
and if I’m wrong I get shocked. Alright, let’s see what we’ve got today.
“I want to speak to you first tonight about a subject even more serious than energy or
inflation. I want to talk to you right now about a fundamental threat to American democracy. I do not mean our political and civil liberties.
They will endure. And I do not refer to the outward strength of America, a nation that
is at peace tonight everywhere in the world, with unmatched economic power and military
might. The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary
ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and
soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about
the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future
is threatening to destroy the social and political fabric of America.”
It’s Jimmy Carter’s “Crisis of Confidence” speech, my favorite speech ever made that
also cost a president 20 points of approval rating.
So Carter says that Americans have lost their ability to face the future and some of their
can-do spirit. The rest of the speech talks about how Americans’ values are out of whack,
how Americans are wasteful, and need a new more vibrant approach to the energy crisis.
Let me tell you a lesson from history Jimmy Carter, you don’t get reelected by telling
Americans how to do more with less. You get reelected by telling Americans, “more,
more, always more, more for you. More. More. More. I promise.”
The speech ultimately called for a renewal of spirit, but all people remember is the
part where Jimmy Carter was criticizing them, and it’s gone down as a great example of
Carter’s political ineptitude. Domestically, Carter paid lip-service to liberal
ideas like energy conservation, even installing solar panels on the White House, but his bigger
plan to solve the energy crises was investment in nuclear power.
And nuclear power did grow, although never to the extent we saw in certain European countries,
partly because of the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979 when radioactive vapor was
released into the air. This of course spurred public fears of a nuclear
meltdown and drove a huge anti-nuclear energy movement.
But some of Carter’s more conservative policies did ultimately have an impact, like his support
for deregulation of the airlines. Before airline deregulation, prices were fixed, so airlines
had to compete by offering better service. Now, of course, flights are much cheaper and
also so much more miserable. In many ways, Carter was more important as
a foreign policy president, but as with his energy initiatives, he’s mostly remembered
for his failures. Aiming to make Human Rights a cornerstone
of America’s foreign policy, Jimmy Carter tried to turn away from the Cold War framework
and focus instead on combatting 3rd world poverty and reducing the spread of nuclear
weapons. Let’s go to the Thought Bubble. Carter’s notable changes included cutting
off aid to Argentina during its “Dirty War” and signing a treaty in 1978 that would transfer
the Panama Canal back to Panama. His greatest accomplishment was probably brokering
the Camp David Accords. This historic peace agreement between Egypt and Israel has, as
we all know, led to a lasting peace in the Middle East, just kidding, but it has been
a step in the right direction and one that’s lasted.
But the U.S. continued to support dictatorial regimes in Guatemala, the Philippines and
South Korea. Carter’s most significant failure in terms of supporting international bad guys,
though, is the Shah of Iran. Iran had oil and was a major buyer of American
arms, but the Shah was really unpopular and our support of him fuelled anti-American sentiments
in Iran. Those boiled over in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, especially after Carter allowed
the Shah to get cancer treatments in America, which in turn prompted the storming of the
American embassy in Tehran and the capture of 53 American hostages. The Iranian hostage
crisis lasted 444 days and although Carter’s secretary of state did negotiate their release,
it didn’t happen until the day Carter’s successor Ronald Reagan was inaugurated.
The inability to free the hostages and the botched rescue attempt — Affleck’s ARGO
notwithstanding — added to the impression that Carter was weak.
Events in the Middle East also increased Cold War tensions especially after 1979, when the
USSR invaded Afghanistan. Carter claimed that the invasion of Afghanistan
was the greatest threat to freedom since World War II and proclaimed the Carter Doctrine,
which was basically said that the U.S. would use force, if necessary, to protect its interests
in the Persian Gulf region. In direct response to the Soviets, the U.S. put an embargo on
grain shipments and organized the boycott of the 1980 Olympics in Moscow.
Thanks for another dose of good news Thought Bubble. So despite focusing on Carter, I’ll
again stress that the real story of the 1970s was the economy.
High inflation and high unemployment had monumental effects in shaping America. And no president
could have dealt with it effectively. Not Carter, not Gerald Ford, not anyone. The truth
is, history isn’t about individuals. Oil shocks and inevitable systemic changes
led to the poor economy and that weakened support for New Deal liberalism and increased
the appeal of conservative ideas like lower taxes, reduced regulation, and cuts in social
spending. All of which, for the record, started under
the Democrat Jimmy Carter, not the Republican Ronald Reagan.
More abstractly, the economic crisis of the 1970’s dealt a serious blow to the Keynesian
consensus that Government action could actually solve macro-economic problems.
I mean according to the economic theory that had prevailed for the previous 50 years, unemployment
and inflation were supposed to be inversely proportional, the so-called Phillips Curve.
When that relationship broke down and we had both high inflation and high unemployment
it undermined the entire idea of government intervention.
And that opened the door for a different way of thinking about economics that emphasized
the economy as an aggregate of individual economic decisions.
Now that might sound like a small thing, but whether you think of individual choices or
governmental policies really make economies work or not work turns out to be pretty freaking
important. And this has come to really shape the contemporary
American political landscape especially when it comes to taxes. Which we’ll talk about
more next week. Thanks for watching. Crash Course is made with all the help from
these nice people and it exists because of your support through Subbable and also because
so many of you are buying Crash Course World History on DVD. Thank you!
Our mission here at Crash Course is to make educational content freely available to everyone
forever and you can help us in that mission, if you’re able, by subscribing at Subbable.
Subbable is a voluntary subscription platform where you can get amazing perks liked signed
posters and lots of other stuff so check it out. Thank you for supporting Crash Course,
thanks for watching, and as we say in my hometown, “don’t forget to be awesome.” ________________
[1] Foner. Give me Liberty ebook version p. 1097

Comments 100

  • What was industrial decline?

  • hangover 2 electric boogaloo

  • 11:30 trump?????? ? ? ?

  • Trump should watch this. He blames NAFTA, yet this all started before Reagan

  • Haha. I love when you said "something terribly important was born" in the intro…and as a joke, I yelled "ME!"…and then you basically said that too!, so…now I know that John Green and I are equally ancient. 😛 That aside, the '70s were actually an interesting time, if you look past the cliches…a LOT was going on then. Including some great music! 🙂

  • If someone ever asks me to describe how mediocre Gerald Ford is I would say that he only got 5 minutes on the chalk board and got replaced by a peanut farmer

  • So the pointless Treaty between Egypt and Isreal didnt play a role in OPEC bitterly rising the price of oil, subsequently playing a role in the in the economy crash? Sounds like a bunch of Leftys over there at CrashCourse…

  • 😀😬😂😃😄😅😋🙃🙂😊😉😉😍😇😘🙁🙁😫😟☹️☹️♢♢♢♢♢♡♡☆☆♟♟♖♗♗♸♸〄㉿♵♼

  • THE SHAH WAS NOT UNPOPULAR!

  • I liked the hangovers I thought they were hilarious…🤣

  • Elvis for John Green. That's a great tradeoff

  • 8:37 did Trump watch dis?

  • Just prior to this period, from 1969-72, OPEC was flooding the U.S. market with $2.00/barrel oil. U.S. oil producers couldn't compete, and this basically put them on life support. Then we had Nixon's "wage and price controls" to combat inflation shortly before the OPEC Oil Embargo of 1973. The OPEC embargo would have been a real shot in the arm for the domestic oil industry if it weren't for Nixon's "wage and price controls," as well as closing the Gold Window. Eventually, the controls were lifted, which temporarily worsened inflation. This malaise lasted for many years, until about 1982-83, when Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve helped break the back of inflation.

  • Thank you so much for this video, Crash Course guys! The economic theory of the 1970s has been physically painful to learn – and you just made a nice, understandable video with colourful cartoons explaining it all.

  • Who else on here is on here in a HIS 104 college class with a Eric Foner textbook. This man is helping me keeping my grades up

  • I doubt anyone can help me or is online but I have a final for Geography tomorrow and I really don't understand what petrodollars are and what caused the 1980s debt crisis. Like do they mean the economic downturn caused stagflation? I don't understand

  • ughhhhh. The last minute final cram is real

  • Anybody notice the Dr. Manhattan in the letter? Is this a particularly clever inclusion because his name is John? 🤔 the questions that really matter.

  • that "more, more" thing is so accurate though. >_> its kinda pitiful

  • "more more, more for you. more more more, I promise" haha love it

  • ford is very similar to trump… even looks like trump. but… historically insignificant? eeeeeegh…

  • ""more more, more for you. more more more, I promise." sounds like Trump '16. catchier slogan than MAGA

  • I wouldn't say that Carter allowed the bump in interest rates. He specifically appointed Paul Volcker who already had some considerable influence on the American economy. He was one of the guys who pushed for Nixon to suspend the Bretton Woods agreement and stop gold convertibility. It was Volcker who (knowingly) raised interest rates, effectively taking money out of the economy. While this had the effect of throwing the country into a recession, it also achieved its goal. Inflation was stopped and the economy started growing again. In fact, Volcker was renominated by Reagan in 1983, although by then, Reagan and congress had begun spending money like a drunken sailor and managed to throw the economy back into recession. Volcker would come back in 2009 to chair the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board and create the Volcker rule that was supposed to have been a new Glass-Steagal act. But Republicans are dumb and gutted it so that banks can continue the risky policies that led to the 2007 collapse.
    Carter's best moment as president, was the appointment of Paul Volcker.

  • peanut farmer and nuclear engineer 😛

  • how old are you

  • possibly the most annoyingly edited thing i’ve ever seen/heard

  • Green: Something wonderful was born.
    Me: You mean when my parents were born in 1973?

  • The 1970's was also the decade of disco. Unless of course you are wait for it. The Mongols.

  • Imagine having him as a history teacher

  • Soooo boring. Use images or videos more. Can't tolerate your face for too long

  • The 1970s sucked

  • Chicago is not the rust belt

  • This is a great video. Where do you get your sources from?

  • can you get US history DVDS? or just world history?

  • Last minute APUSH studying

  • APUSH TEST TOMORROW AHHH

  • I love Jimmy Carter's Crisis of Confidence speech.

  • hey i might actually pass my apush exam now lmao

  • I betya your boy FDR could have solved marcoecomics. Whip em in with that new deal.

  • I like this program, but there seems to me to be too much digression.

  • You forgot to mention how the spending under the LBJ administration for it's "great society" and the Vietnam war caused foreign countries to redeem their holdings in gold, shrinking the American gold reserves to such a degree that the US didn't have enough gold to cover its exchange obligations so President Nixon was forced to take the US off the gold standard or declare federal bankruptcy.

  • Wait so if we had somehow switched off petroleum based oil then we could have possibly avoided a economic crises

  • Well that's why Ford wasn't running again

  • Jimmy Carter is my like 3 cousin I never met him tho. Anyway why was America trying to fix other countries when we don't even have this country figured out yet? We are the youngest country if anything we should have them helping us not the other way around. We do have the best military tho kudos to them but still there is still so much to fix here.

  • Americans love to be told how wonderful they are in simplistic soundbites. Politicians who try to use rational, intellectual arguments tend to lose bigly. I’m looking at you, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and John Kerry! The key to success is telling people exactly what they want to hear. It works in religion too; witness the popularity of prosperity gospel preachers from Norman Vincent Peale to Joel Osteen.

  • Man that Jimmy Carter speech seems shockingly on point these days.

  • fake news. it's not the president's decision to raise the interest rate. Sorry. You don't know how government works. Every historian, political scientist, and economist knows how it works. But you don't.

  • 8:41 is that Trump?

  • You have no idea what happened during that administration. Calling him a good foreign policy president is appalling.

  • 2:15 a wild Cactuar appears!

  • Reagan removed those solar panels from the White House. A good example of spiteful idiotic behavior

  • Apple Computers Don't Kill Fascism when they are powered by Fascism. But great lectures.

  • Carter was the truth. People couldn’t handle the truth

  • Culturally, there was a Christian spiritual revival in the late 70s. (Even Bob Dylan became a Christian.) I remember a lot of people speaking about becoming "born again." I saw many "I Found It!" bumper stickers. Seemed like everyone (rumor has it, John Lennon too) was involved in a personal relationship with Jesus. (Heck, even Jimmy Carter claimed to be a "born again" Christian.) Lastly, the tv mini-series, Jesus of Nazareth, in 1977, had everbody buzzing. It was a great time to be a Christian.

  • It feels like 9 ppl i can't find a job anywhere

  • Fed policy had a ridiculous amount to do with the malaise; easy money in conjunction with deficit spending is not bad

  • Unlike the current occupant in executive office, Carter was a thoughtful person who was always trying to do what he genuinely thought best for the American public. And I certainly can't blame Carter for what happened in Iran. No.

  • "and for most Americans, it sucked" insert disco joke here.

  • In March 1983 Reagan gave his SDI speech and a month later the Aircraft carrier USS Enterprise ran aground in San Francisco harbour. Reagan spoke to the fearful people of California telling them that none of our navy ships have nuclear weapons; a bold face lie that was mostly accepted because of course he would not lie to the people. The next morning COMNAVSURFPAC issued all Navy personnel a reminder not to discuss daily operations with any outsiders without a need to know.

  • Eh, I gave this a thumbs down

  • 8:30. Trump was listening.

  • The toy eagle is in every episode. Just as the Superman action figure on Seinfeld

  • I'm am cringing on the economic reasons John gives. All the historical moments are fine, mainly because I'm not an expert to the extent he is so I will defer.

    So where to start, well the reason Nixon removed the link to gold was because the US could no longer make it's obligations to foreign nations regarding the gold holdings, this mainly stemmed from the LBJ guns and butter policy of the 60s and the fairly loose money policy of the Fed throughout the 70s. Nixon also set wage and price controls, oil included, in the early part of the 70s which led to the long gas lines of which John ignored. Economically speaking, high prices don't lead to shortages and lines, price controls do; demandimg a lower price than the market creates excess demand example of that is current day Venezuela. Also, the economy of the US was never a manufacturing economy in the 20th century, in fact the highest ever manufacturing employment base was 1944, in the middle of a war and it gradually went down from there, side note to that the amount of output went up, manufacturing is huge in the US, it's just that we don't need tons of workers. I will agree oil shocks hurt but not as much as people think, case and point of the 2000s, what really hurts are price controls.

    There's more to go over but I think I made my peace.

  • 3:48 has a bunch of content in the subtitles that wasn't being spoken, like some sort of script that was uploaded before being trimmed and recorded

  • The destruction of our glorious nation. Terrible

  • You didn’t mention disco and how that was an escape for the economic malaise.

  • You can't actually stop the fools laughing every one single time on oil prices. They actually say you're a fool.

  • Reagan destroyed the economy as we know it

  • An era of BROWN

  • anyone see the cactus at 2:15

  • Video starts at 1:40 he just [email protected] bullsh*ts before that. Video could also be far shorter if it was more focused.

  • Strong with the Force, this channel is.

  • "sorry Gerald ford there's a peanut farmer in town"

  • Something really bothers me: every thing is great about crash course EXCEPT that sometimes the subtitles add to what is actually said in the video which makes it harder to follow

  • "I'm Gerald Ford, and you're not."
    – Gerald Ford

  • It's almost as if having an economy linked so strongly to one finite resource is a bad idea

  • Who is the bust behind Nixon at 2:43? The image is too fuzzy to tell and as much as I want to believe it's Lincoln it looks disturbingly like Julius Caesar– which sends an odd message.

  • I wonder how many times they get copyrighted a video. 10? 20?

  • DVD's? Who now? 2019 don't know her.

  • APUSH Exam tomorrow

  • watching this video bc exam tmr but I saw Green's Liverpool shirt and was like yayy bc they beat Barca hehe

  • Ford’s purpose was to clean up the secrets of Watergate, JFK, LBJ and keep us distracted with NYC trying to suck blood from the federal gov’t. Oh. And pardon Nixon.

  • The corporate tax was high

  • whats up with the subtitles at around 3.50? forgotten info?

  • whos back for finals wooot wooot

  • Today it's 9, 9 people

  • Loving that stagflation pun

  • He's in his late 30s, early 40s now

  • I love the fallout pip boy!

  • Wow John is actually 40 years old. Dang!

  • you lost me there at 12th minute… when you dug a bit too deep into economics:)

  • Why not at least mention that the Reagan cronies successfully halted the release of the Iranian hostages to purposely steal the 1980 election from Carter? He likely would have lost anyway, being a rather unpopular President, overseeing so much hardship, but it was the nail in the coffin for his second term. It is a very important note in history, no longer a conspiracy theory. Reagan DID do that. Along with Iran Contra and other atrocities. It is relevant to let people know about such things, even a single sentence covering it would have sufficed. Your omission is noted and I have seen you do so in other of your videos.

  • More, more, more! -Billy Idol.

  • Economics??? Or economics sliced and diced onion into a carter video.

  • Lol so in your time line is not the same as mine and I lived it.

  • I just love crush course who else….

  • Dictator Regimes in South Korea?

  • I laughed more than I needed to at the 9 ppl joke lol

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